In gaming theory, there’s an interesting game to play to test your loyalty, priorities, and worldview. OK, it’s not that dramatically revealing, but clever nonetheless. It’s called the Prisoner’s Dilemma.
Let’s say, you and a buddy rob a bank and you get away with a big haul of cash. The police know you did it, but they don’t have enough evidence to prove it. So they arrest the two of you for a lesser crime and take you to different rooms for interrogation. Here’s the choices that you face. If you both keep quiet, you’ll each get 3 years in jail. If one of you turns on the other, then the one doing the “ratting” only gets a year while the other gets 7 years in jail. If you both “rat” on each other, then you both get 5 years in jail.
So, what would you do?
Imagine hearing the Jeopardy music playing in the background while you contemplate your answer.
Behavioral Scientists set up some large scale computer modeling programs and played this game over and over to try to discern the best strategy from never tell to always tell (or rat) to various versions of tit for tat, if the first time someone tells on you, the next time you tell on them, etc.
Which strategy do you think was the best?
Well, it depends on the duration or how many times (or trials to add a little legal lingo) you play the game.
The answer based on the mathematics of a single trial is that you should always tell or rat on the other. Think it through. If you tell and the other doesn’t, then you only get 1 year whereas your buddy gets 7 years. If you tell and he tells then you both get 5 years, but had you not ratted, then you would have gotten 7 years so you still come out better. So, no matter what your fellow bank robber does, the best choice for you is to rat on your friend.
The tattletale does well.
Does that seem a bit troubling and unappealing? You betcha.
Now, if you analyze it at a group level where you sum the total years in jail for both of you, then it’s totally different. If you both remain quiet, then you each have 3 years for a total of 6 years together. If one rats and the other doesn’t, then it’s 1 year for one person plus 7 years for the other for a total of 8 years jail time and if you both tell on each other, then its 5 + 5 or ten total years of jailtime.
Now, what’s so insightful for all of this? Well, first it establishes our priority system. When the chips are down and the heat is on, are we a “Me first” or “group first” person? If we all lived following Stephen Covey’s 4th Habit of “Think Win-Win”, then we’d all be quiet and as a group we’d come out happier, equal, and better.
But not everybody has read Covey.
And those that haven’t or don’t follow his recommended Habits in this scenario, start getting way ahead of those that do, which makes the Covey folks mad so they start ratting and soon the whole system devolves into an every person for himself society. As an aside, this type of gaming theory predicts how global cooperation rarely lasts and rapidly breaks down. Think climate change–some nations are making expensive investments to their energy production with costly filters and air scrubbers while others just take their dirty coal and burn, baby, burn. Doesn’t promote harmony or clean air does it?
Think of politics and the inside trader information, the generous lobbyists, and the questionable math that many in Congress on Congressional pay end up being multi-millionaires. Gotta like those speaking fees huh? There certainly exists the temptation to take shortcuts and/or think #MeFirst. Hey, it’s what we call, “Looking out for number one.”
So, is there a scenario or number of trials where cooperation wins out in this game? Yes, there is and it’s only under one particular circumstance.
If you run an infinite number of trials.
So the good guys who cooperate win in the end, but it takes an eternity to win.
Here’s the deal though–we are eternal creatures and we need to think as such. We are to think win-win and do everything in love. We are to have a servant’s heart. We are to give generously and think of others before ourselves.Our investment strategy is to store up our treasures in heaven where the payback is a perpetuity–that’s the best ROI (Return on Investment). We are to walk wisely and in that light, well…it’s also probably a good idea not to rob a bank. However, if seeing the wicked prosper gets you a little hot under the collar, consider what the Psalmist wrote:
Do not fret over doers of evil; do not envy those who do wrong. For they wither quickly like grass and wilt like tender plants.
Trust in the LORD and do good; dwell in the land and cultivate faithfulness. Delight yourself in the LORD, and He will give you the desires of your heart.
Commit your way to the LORD; trust in Him, and He will do it. He will bring forth your righteousness like the dawn, your justice like the noonday sun.
Be still before the LORD and wait patiently for Him; fret not when men prosper in their ways, when they carry out wicked schemes – Ps 37:1-7
Think Big Picture, have an eternal perspective and always remember: God looks after His children. Now that’s something you can take not from but to the bank!